Median Ideology Simulator

A 435-seat chamber. Adjust the seven knobs and watch the median representative's ideology distribution change. Values are in percentage points. Each simulation = 1000 election runs.  ·  Compare against historical House results, 1992–2024 →

Election Environment

Drag right for a Republican wave, left for a Democratic wave.

District Map

Share of districts that are packed safe-D seats. Slide right to gerrymander more aggressively in Democrats' favour.
Share of districts that are packed safe-R seats. Slide right to gerrymander more aggressively in Republicans' favour.

Candidates

Higher → Democrats run more moderate candidates across all districts.
Higher → Republicans run more moderate candidates across all districts.
Higher → Democrats run more moderate candidates in swing districts.
Higher → Republicans run more moderate candidates in swing districts.
Higher → Democrats run more moderate candidates in red districts.
Higher → Republicans run more moderate candidates in blue districts.

Voters

Higher → voters punish ideologically extreme candidates more heavily, relative to how partisan the district is.
Lower → election outcomes track district partisan lean and candidate ideology more deterministically. Higher → more random per-district swings.
Running…
Cell colour = party of victory + margin of victory.
1st: histogram of the median representative's ideology across 1000 simulations, colored by party (blue = Democrat, red = Republican).
2nd: one example chamber — each district's partisan lean vs the elected representative's ideology. The black star marks the median rep.
3rd: histogram of district partisan lean across the chamber. Each district is one cell stacked in its partisan lean bin; cell colour = party of victory + margin of victory — blue if the simulator's D candidate is expected to win, red if the R is, with darker shades for larger predicted margins.
4th: distribution of final Republican seats across the 1000 simulations. Bars are red when R holds a majority and blue when D does, split at the chamber's majority threshold.
See more plots
20 example chambers + mismatch distribution under the current sliders.

Distribution of Rep Ideology

20 Example Chambers